I just picked up a few new brands of cigars. All are great blends with various notes of flavor – or I wouldn’t even have considered them. And I’m thinking, are these manufacturers based in reality when their new cigar is introduced to the shop owners? Are they cognizant of the fact that it’s going to take some time to get these cigars past the managers or owners and will the customers try one, and then buy another?
Look at the odds from another business. I’m flipping through the Jan/Feb issue of Poets and Writers. I land on page 76. There’s a kudos notice at the bottom of the left page for Rebecca Sacks congratulating her as the recipient of the 2022 Janet Heidinger Kafka Prize for her book of fiction, “City of a Thousand Gates” published by HarperCollins (2021).
“The Janet Heidinger Kafka Prize ($15,000) is a literary award presented annually for the ‘best book-length work of prose fiction’ by an American woman. The award has been given by the Susan B. Anthony Institute for Gender and Women’s Studies and the Department of English at the University of Rochester since 1975.” (Google)
There are so many negatives in this “ad.” It’s printed in a delicate, white script font on a black background. The point size must be maaaaaybe, and I’m guessing – a nine. Why would I bother to read it? But I did.
I digested the synopsis and was immediately attracted to the subject matter and the subsequent plot to the point where I looked through my favorite bookseller’s sites and found a signed copy and lo and behold – I bought it – and it’s on the way.
But why did I read the ad? Why?
Ultimately, it was the fact that Sacks had written what was considered by the learnéd committee to be the “best book-length work of prose fiction” by an American woman. “City of a Thousand Gates” is her debut novel. So? Let’s see.
Look at the facts: “Within the book publishing industry, it is agreed that the odds of an author getting his/her work published stands between 1% and 2%. Despite this low number, more than 95% of manuscripts received by publishers and agents are below the level the standard required.” (Google)
Add to that, each of the major publishers receives 3,000 – 5,000 fiction manuscripts a year, yet only 5 – 10 of those will be accepted for publication (Sacks was one of the 5 – 10). Most of those manuscripts are rejected on the first few paragraphs (puffs) and some aren’t read at all.” (Google) And then to have the publisher submit your work for a prestigious prize?
And WIN!
The cello slides off effortlessly. An examination of the construction ensues. Breathe in the wrapper’s raw aroma. Light it up. Puff. Puff. Puff. Take in a long, luxurious draw. Retrohale if you want to impress me – I’m not. Silence. “Here’s the price sheet. You’re smoking this one.” I point. No reaction. Another draw. An expression of “not bad” slyly reveals itself across the owner’s face.
A conversation ensues between us about something other than the smoldering cigar. The conversation becomes a discussion. (Gawd, I hope my eyes didn’t roll.) More spewed opinions. (Concentrate on the cigar. Think of the numbers, the odds, the panoply of choices. Now I scatter another one in the way.) What are the chances? I don’t know.
But I’m calm because I know every cigar sale is a gamble, even if I think I’m going to win every time.
And manufacturers? Think 5 – 10.
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